India to Have 2nd Largest Obese Population by 2050: Lancet Report

A study published in The Lancet medical journal projects that by 2050, India may have over 440 million (44.9 crore) obese and overweight individuals, making it the second-largest overweight or obese population in the world after China. The study, conducted as part of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, involved researchers from Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and other global institutions.

Key Findings of the Study

Global Projections:

• By 2050, over 3.8 billion people globally—more than half of all adults and a third of children and adolescents—will be overweight or obese.
  As of 2021, 2.11 billion (211 crore) people (about 45% of the global population) were overweight or obese.
• Top 8 Countries with Highest Overweight/Obese Population in 2021:
  • China: 402 million
  • India: 180 million
  • USA: 172 million
  • Brazil: 88 million
  • Russia: 71 million
  • Mexico: 58 million
  • Indonesia: 52 million
  • Egypt: 41 million
• In sub-Saharan Africa, the obese and overweight population is expected to increase by 254.8% by 2050.

India-Specific Projections for 2050:

• Total overweight and obese population: 449 million (44.9 crore)
  • 218 million men
  • 231 million women
• India will have the second-largest obese population, followed by:
  • China (1st)
  • USA (3rd)
  • Brazil (4th)
  • Nigeria (5th)
• Children (5-14 years):
  • 16 million boys and 14 million girls could be overweight or obese, making India second after China.
• Young Adults (15-24 years):
  • India is projected to have the highest burden of obesity in this age group.
  • Over 22 million men and 17 million women could be overweight or obese by 2050.

Understanding Obesity: BMI Classification

• Overweight: BMI between 25 and 30
• Obese: BMI greater than 30

The study introduced two new obesity classifications:

1. Clinical Obesity: Chronic condition due to obesity-related organ dysfunction.
2. Pre-Clinical Obesity: Increased health risks due to obesity but no illness yet.

The new obesity definition includes:

• Height, weight, waist circumference, muscle mass
• Organ function assessment