India is projected to overtake China in terms of air passenger traffic growth rate by 2026, according to the Airports Council International (ACI). This marks a major milestone in India’s aviation sector, which is among the fastest-growing markets in the world over the next three decades (2023–2053).
Key Highlights
- India’s aviation market is rapidly growing, with infrastructure enhancements underway.
- Despite China having a larger aviation base, India’s growth rate is set to overtake due to rising demand and ongoing development.
Long-Term Projections (2023–2053):
- India is projected to be the fastest-growing aviation market globally over the next 30 years.
- India’s CAGR (2023–2053): 5.5%
- China’s CAGR: 3.8%
- India’s growth rate is equal to Indonesia’s (5.5%), despite its smaller market.
Other Key Projections:
- Trips per capita in India: Expected to grow from 0.1 in 2023 to 0.4 in 2043.
- GDP per capita: calculated using PPP in 2019 terms, indicating strong future economic capacity for air travel.
ACI Report Insights
| Year | India’s Growth Rate | China’s Growth Rate |
| 2024 | 10.1% | 12% |
| 2026 | 10.5% | 8.9% |
| 2027 | 10.3% | 7.2% |
| 2023–2027 CAGR | 9.5% | 8.8% |
About ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East:
- Represents 600+ airports across the region.
- Provides projections and policy support for civil aviation growth.
Top 10 Fastest-Growing Aviation Markets (2023–2053):
| Country | Projected CAGR |
| India | 5.5% |
| Indonesia | 5.5% |
| Vietnam | 4.6% |
| Philippines | 4.5% |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.5% |
| Thailand | 4.3% |
| Qatar | 4.2% |
| Egypt | 4.0% |
| UAE | 3.8% |
| China | 3.8% |
Infrastructure Developments in India:
- Operational Airports (Current): 159
- New Airport Projects Planned: 50 (in the next five years)
- Aircraft on Order by Domestic Airlines: Over 1,700 planes
Key Aviation Reforms & Policies By Government:
Bharatiya Vayuyan Vidheyak (BVV), 2024
- Replaces Aircraft Act, 1934
- Signed into law in January 2025
- Focus: Modernization, Safety, Global Standards
Strategic Documents:
- National Civil Aviation Policy, 2016: Boosts regional air connectivity and tourism
- Vision 2040 by Invest India: Long-term development roadmap for Indian civil aviation
Flagship Schemes & Initiatives:
| Initiative | Objective |
| RCS-UDAN Scheme | Operationalize 1,000 UDAN routes and revive 100 unserved/underserved airports |
| MRO Policy (2024–25) | Incentivize domestic Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul sector |
| Privatization | 25 airports under PPP mode via National Monetization Pipeline |
| NABH Nirman | Airport capacity expansion |
| Digi Yatra | Paperless passenger travel |
| AirSewa | Online grievance redressal portal |
| GAGAN (ISRO + AAI) | GPS-aided Air Traffic Management system |
Green Aviation & International Cooperation:
Delhi Declaration on Civil Aviation (2024): Adopted at 2nd APMC, emphasizes regional cooperation
Carbon Neutrality Efforts:
- Standardized Carbon Accounting & Reporting Framework
- Since 2014, 73 airports (e.g., Delhi, Bengaluru) use 100% green energy
Current Status of Indian Aviation:
| Parameter | Value |
| Global Ranking | 9th largest civil aviation market |
| Domestic Passenger Ranking | 3rd largest globally |
| Operational Airports (2024) | 157–159 |
| Women Pilots in India | 15% (3x global average) |
| Domestic Passenger CAGR (FY14–FY20) | 14.5% |