India Meteorological Department (IMD) has launched Bharat Forecast System (BFS), an indigenously developed ultra-high-resolution weather model capable of delivering 6-km grid-based forecasts—the highest operational resolution in the world.
Launched at Vigyan Bhawan, New Delhi, this model significantly enhances India’s short- and medium-range forecasting capability.
Key Features of Bharat Forecast System (BFS)
- Developed by: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune
- Implemented by: India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
- Resolution: 6 km × 6 km (earlier model had 12 km resolution)
- Forecast Range: Improved short- and medium-range (3–7 days); no major changes in long-range forecasts yet
- Model Base: Triangular Cubic Octahedral Grid (more grids over tropical regions like India)
- Primary Benefit: Panchayat-level forecasts, enhancing village-level weather advisories
| Feature | Details |
| Forecast Reach | Panchayat-level (village-level) accuracy |
| Forecast Timeframes | Short- and Medium-range (3 to 7 days); not applicable to long-range |
| Accuracy Improvement | 30% in extreme rainfall; 64% in core zones |
| Computing Power | Arka & Arunika Supercomputers with 11.77 & 8.24 PetaFLOPS |
| Storage | 33 + 24 Petabytes; additional 1.9 PetaFLOPS AI/ML system |
| Model Type | Triangular Cubic Octahedral Grid Model (better tropical coverage) |
| Global Comparison | Higher resolution than UK, US, EU models (which operate at 9–14 km) |
Impact
- 64% improvement in core zone accuracy
- 30% better prediction of extreme rainfall events
- Improved alerts for cyclones, monsoons, heatwaves
- Supports key sectors: Agriculture, Infrastructure, Water Resources
- Will reduce crop loss and strengthen disaster preparedness
- High relevance for climate-vulnerable tropical regions, not just India
Significance
- Precision Forecasting: First-ever 6-km resolution operational forecasts—a leap from previous 12-km models.
- Localized Alerts: Enables block to village-level predictions, addressing intra-regional weather variability.
- Disaster Resilience: Boosts India’s ability to predict extreme weather events like cyclones, heatwaves, floods, etc.
- Economic Impact: Enhances early warnings critical for agriculture, infrastructure, water management, and rural livelihoods.
- Climate Adaptation: Vital for a monsoon-dependent nation amid rising climate-induced volatility.
- Technology Leadership: Establishes India as a global leader in tropical and high-resolution forecasting.
Operational Infrastructure
High-Performance Computing (HPC) Details
| Institution | HPC System | Compute Power | Storage |
| IITM, Pune | Arka | 11.77 PetaFLOPS | 33 Petabytes |
| NCMRWF, Delhi | Arunika | 8.24 PetaFLOPS | 24 Petabytes |
| AI/ML System | Standalone Unit | 1.9 PetaFLOPS | For AI applications |
PetaFLOPS = 1 Quadrillion Floating Point Operations Per Second
Limitations and Future Steps
- Thunderstorm Prediction: BFS is not currently optimized for sudden, localised events like thunderstorms.
- Radar Network Expansion: IMD to install 34 additional Doppler Weather Radars, adding to the current 53 for localized phenomena.
- Long-Range Forecasts: No improvement in long-range seasonal/monthly forecasts with BFS; separate models used.
National Importance
- Indigenous Innovation: Major boost to Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make in India in climate science.
- Women in STEM: BFS is being led by four women scientists, reinforcing the ‘Nari Shakti’ vision of the Government.
Related Initiative
- Mission Mausam: Recently launched by IMD with ₹2000 crore budget to modernise climate and weather forecasting systems across India.
Limitations & Future Outlook
- BFS currently less effective in predicting sudden severe thunderstorms
- IMD is addressing this by installing 34 new Doppler Weather Radars (in addition to existing 53)