Theme 2025: Global emissions reductions are far too slow; updated climate pledges show only marginal progress, keeping the world off track for both 1.5°C and 2°C goals.

About Emissions Gap Report (EGR)

• Annual report by UNEP.
• Tracks global progress in limiting warming well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement.
• Released before every COP.
• Co-produced by:
  • UNEP
  • UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre (UNEP-CCC)
  • Partner institutions.
• 2025 edition- 16th edition, titled “Off Target”.

Emissions Gap Report 2025 Key Findings

Projected Global Warming

• Under current policies– warming by ~2.8°C by 2100.
• If all NDCs fully implemented– warming 2.3–2.5°C.
• Only marginal improvement from 2024 estimate (2.6–2.8°C).
• Global GHG emissions increased 2.3% in 2024, reaching 57.7 GtCO₂e (a record high).

Factors Influencing Projections

• Methodological adjustments improved projections by 0.1°C.
• US withdrawal from Paris Agreement is expected to offset the same 0.1°C gain– net effect zero.

Required Emission Reductions by 2035

To be on track:

• 2°C Goal– Emissions must fall 35% below 2019 levels by 2035.
• 1.5°C Goal– Emissions must fall 55% below 2019 levels by 2035.
• UNEP warns: A temporary overshoot of 1.5°C is very likely within the next decade.
• Only 60 Parties (covering 63% of global emissions) have submitted 2035 NDCs.

Positive Indicators

• Projected temperature rise has fallen from 3–3.5°C (2015)– ~2.4–2.5°C (2025).
• Rapid growth in:
  • Solar & wind capacity
  • Battery storage
  • Electric mobility
• 90% of global emissions are now covered under national pledges (NDCs) — highest ever.

Successes Highlighted

• Gradual decline in projected warming due to stronger pledges and technology improvements.
• Renewables, EVs, battery tech expanding rapidly, reflecting industrial readiness for deep decarbonisation.
• Near-universal NDC coverage (90% of global emissions now pledged).

Major Limitations Identified

Weak Political Ambition

• Latest NDC updates reduce warming by just 0.1°C.
• Warming remains stuck at 2.3–2.5°C, far exceeding 1.5°C.

Climate Finance Gap

• Climate finance must triple by 2030 to meet mitigation needs.
• Current mobilisation = only one-third of required levels.
• Developing countries face severe funding constraints.

Implementation Deficit

• Only 9 of G20 countries are on track to meet existing NDCs.
• Gap between announced commitments vs domestic actions remains large.

Overdependence on Unproven Carbon Removal

• Heavy reliance on future:
  • Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
  • Direct Air Capture (DAC)
• UNEP warns these are still:
  • Expensive
  • Energy-intensive
  • Unproven at global scale

Geopolitical Setbacks

• Post-2022 crises- resurgence of fossil fuel investment.
• Fossil fuel subsidies crossed USD 1.3 trillion in 2023– five times higher than clean energy subsidies.
• Conflicts and energy insecurity reversed some decarbonisation gains.

UNEP Recommendations: EGR 2025

Accelerate Near-Term Emission Cuts

• Cut emissions by 35% for 2°C and 55% for 1.5°C by 2035.
• Immediate need:
  • Phase out coal
  • Reduce global oil consumption
  • No new fossil fuel infrastructure

Mobilise Global Climate Finance

• Reform global financial systems to unlock capital via:
  • Debt swaps for climate action
  • Concessional financing
  • Guarantees and blended finance
• Empower private sector investment in low-carbon technologies.

Strengthen International Cooperation

• Operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund.
• Enhance cross-border technology sharing.
• Support developing nations facing capacity constraints.

Mainstream Adaptation & Resilience

• Integrate adaptation into:
  • National budgets
  • Climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, water, health)
• Protect vulnerable populations against expected overshoot of 1.5°C.

Phase Out Fossil Fuel Subsidies

• Redirect $1.3 trillion fossil subsidies toward renewable energy.
• Remove market distortions that favour fossil fuels.

Support Developing Economies

• Improve access to:
  • Clean energy innovation funds
  • Technical capacity building
  • Affordable green technologies
• Ensure a just and equitable transition.

Strengthen Global Monitoring

• Create a unified global system to track:
  • Emissions
  • Climate finance
  • NDC implementation
• Enhance transparency and accountability.

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

• Established: 1972
• Origin: Stockholm Conference (UN Conference on Human Environment, 1972)
• Headquarters: Nairobi, Kenya
• Executive Director (2025): Inger Andersen
• Mandate: Leading global environmental authority coordinating international environmental policies.

UNEP’s Major Flagship Reports

1. Emissions Gap Report (EGR) – Mitigation progress
2. Adaptation Gap Report (AGR) – Adaptation progress
3. Global Environment Outlook (GEO) – Comprehensive environmental assessment
4. Production Gap Report (with partners) – Fossil fuel production trends
5. Frontiers Report – Emerging environmental issues

Climate Concepts

Paris Agreement (2015)

• Temperature goals:
  • Limit to below 2°C
  • Pursue efforts for 1.5°C
• Instrument: NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions).
• Global stocktake: Every 5 years.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

• Country commitments for mitigation & adaptation.
• Next major cycle: 2035 NDCs.

Key Terms

• GHG – Greenhouse gases
• CO₂e – Carbon dioxide equivalent
• Mitigation – Emission reduction
• Overshoot – Temporary exceedance of 1.5°C
• DAC / CDR – Carbon removal technologies