India to Surpass China in Air Passenger Traffic Growth by 2026

India is projected to overtake China in terms of air passenger traffic growth rate by 2026, according to the Airports Council International (ACI). This marks a major milestone in India’s aviation sector, which is among the fastest-growing markets in the world over the next three decades (2023–2053).

Key Highlights

  • India’s aviation market is rapidly growing, with infrastructure enhancements underway.
  • Despite China having a larger aviation base, India’s growth rate is set to overtake due to rising demand and ongoing development.

Long-Term Projections (2023–2053):

  • India is projected to be the fastest-growing aviation market globally over the next 30 years.
  • India’s CAGR (2023–2053): 5.5%
  • China’s CAGR: 3.8%
  • India’s growth rate is equal to Indonesia’s (5.5%), despite its smaller market.

Other Key Projections:

  • Trips per capita in India: Expected to grow from 0.1 in 2023 to 0.4 in 2043.
  • GDP per capita: calculated using PPP in 2019 terms, indicating strong future economic capacity for air travel.

ACI Report Insights

YearIndia’s Growth RateChina’s Growth Rate
202410.1%12%
202610.5%8.9%
202710.3%7.2%
2023–2027 CAGR9.5%8.8%

About ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East:

  • Represents 600+ airports across the region.
  • Provides projections and policy support for civil aviation growth.

Top 10 Fastest-Growing Aviation Markets (2023–2053):

CountryProjected CAGR
India5.5%
Indonesia5.5%
Vietnam4.6%
Philippines4.5%
Saudi Arabia4.5%
Thailand4.3%
Qatar4.2%
Egypt4.0%
UAE3.8%
China3.8%

Infrastructure Developments in India:

  • Operational Airports (Current): 159
  • New Airport Projects Planned: 50 (in the next five years)
  • Aircraft on Order by Domestic Airlines: Over 1,700 planes

Key Aviation Reforms & Policies By Government:

Bharatiya Vayuyan Vidheyak (BVV), 2024

  • Replaces Aircraft Act, 1934
  • Signed into law in January 2025
  • Focus: Modernization, Safety, Global Standards

Strategic Documents:

  • National Civil Aviation Policy, 2016: Boosts regional air connectivity and tourism
  • Vision 2040 by Invest India: Long-term development roadmap for Indian civil aviation

Flagship Schemes & Initiatives:

InitiativeObjective
RCS-UDAN SchemeOperationalize 1,000 UDAN routes and revive 100 unserved/underserved airports
MRO Policy (2024–25)Incentivize domestic Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul sector
Privatization25 airports under PPP mode via National Monetization Pipeline
NABH NirmanAirport capacity expansion
Digi YatraPaperless passenger travel
AirSewaOnline grievance redressal portal
GAGAN (ISRO + AAI)GPS-aided Air Traffic Management system

Green Aviation & International Cooperation:

Delhi Declaration on Civil Aviation (2024):  Adopted at 2nd APMC, emphasizes regional cooperation

Carbon Neutrality Efforts:

  • Standardized Carbon Accounting & Reporting Framework
  • Since 2014, 73 airports (e.g., Delhi, Bengaluru) use 100% green energy

Current Status of Indian Aviation:

ParameterValue
Global Ranking9th largest civil aviation market
Domestic Passenger Ranking3rd largest globally
Operational Airports (2024)157–159
Women Pilots in India15% (3x global average)
Domestic Passenger CAGR (FY14–FY20)14.5%

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