The 21st edition of the OECD–FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 was released, providing 10-year projections for agricultural and fish markets across the globe. The report highlights critical shifts in cereal usage, biofuel demand, animal-based food consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions, along with regional growth patterns.
Key Highlights & Trends
Cereal Utilization Shift by 2034
- Only 40% of global cereal production will be consumed directly as food by humans.
- 27% will be used for biofuels and industrial purposes (up from earlier estimate of 23%).
- 33% will go to animal feed.
- India, Brazil, and Indonesia are expected to lead biofuel growth, even as concerns persist about sustainability.
Biofuel Demand Surge
- Biofuel demand projected to grow at 0.9% annually through 2034, up from earlier 0.6%.
- The industry still relies mostly on food-based feedstocks (e.g., maize, sugarcane, oilseeds).
- Cellulosic/advanced feedstocks like crop residue and woody biomass are not expected to see significant growth.
Yield Gains Drive Production
- Global cereal production growth: 1.1% annually
- Driven mostly by 0.9% increase in yield
- Harvested area expansion to slow down to 0.14% annually (vs 0.33% in the previous decade)
India’s Growing Role
- India and Southeast Asia will account for 39% of global cereal consumption growth by 2034 (up from 32% in past decade).
- China’s share to decline from 32% to 13%, due to changing dietary patterns and slowing consumption growth.
Surge in Animal-Based Food Consumption
- Global production of meat, dairy, and eggs to rise 17% by 2034.
- Livestock inventories will grow by 7%.
- GHG emissions from agriculture to rise by 6%, though carbon intensity per unit output will decline.
Nutritional Transition in Middle-Income Nations
- Per capita calorie intake from animal & fish products:
- Global average: 6% Increase
- Lower-middle-income countries: 24% Increase → reaching 364 kcal/day
- Low-income countries: remains low at 143 kcal/day (below FAO’s healthy diet benchmark of 300 kcal/day)
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)
| Fact | Details |
| Established | 1961 |
| Headquarters | Paris, France |
| Members | 38 countries (mostly developed nations) |
| India’s Status | Not a member, but a Key Partner Country |
| Key Reports | Government at a Glance, Better Life Index |
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)
| Fact | Details |
| Founded | 1945 |
| HQ | Rome, Italy |
| Members | 194 countries + EU |
| Mandate | End hunger, improve nutrition, promote sustainable agriculture |
| Key Focus Areas | Agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food systems, rural development |
| Notable Reports | SOFA, SOFI, SOFO, SOFIA |
Why This Matters?
- Highlights the growing competition between food, feed, and fuel, affecting global food security.
- Places India as a key global player in biofuel-driven cereal demand and rising nutritional standards.
- Raises environmental concerns over rising agricultural GHG emissions, even as productivity improves.
- Flags persistent inequalities in food and nutrition access between developing and low-income nations.
- Offers insights into agriculture-led climate policy, technology adoption, and trade decisions.