According to latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Monitor report, global public debt levels are projected to rise sharply in the coming years, potentially surpassing pandemic-era levels and nearing World War II highs.
The IMF forecasts that:
- Global public debt could reach 99.6% of global GDP by 2030.
- Under a worst-case scenario, global debt may exceed 117% of GDP by 2027, nearly 20 percentage points higher than earlier estimates.
This surge is attributed to ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, including new U.S. tariff policies that are accelerating debt accumulation worldwide.
Top 10 Countries with Highest Debt-to-GDP Ratio (2025)
| Rank | Country | Debt-to-GDP Ratio (%) |
| 1 | Sudan | 252% |
| 2 | Japan | 234.9% |
| 3 | Singapore | 174.9% |
| 4 | Greece | 142.2% |
| 5 | Bahrain | 141.4% |
| 6 | Maldives | 140.8% |
| 7 | Italy | 137.3% |
| 8 | United States | 122.5% |
| 9 | France | 116.3% |
| 10 | Canada | 112.5% |
Key Observations
- Sudan has overtaken Japan to record the highest debt-to-GDP ratio globally (252%), driven by prolonged conflict and economic crises.
- Japan remains the country with the highest debt ratio among developed economies (234.9%), linked to persistent fiscal deficits and an ageing population.
- The United States ranks 8th with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 122.5%.
- Other high-debt nations include Singapore, Greece, Bahrain, Maldives, Italy, France, and Canada.
Where Do India and China Stand?
- China: Ranked 21st globally with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 96%.
- India: Ranked 31st globally with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 80%. The Indian government targets reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 50±1% by 31 March 2031. Sustainable debt management is critical for India’s long-term economic stability and sovereign credit ratings.
About Debt-to-GDP Ratio
- Definition: The debt-to-GDP ratio measures a country’s government debt relative to its gross domestic product (GDP)—the total value of goods and services produced in a year.
- Expressed as a percentage, it reflects a country’s capacity to repay debts.
- Economies with a low debt-to-GDP ratio are generally seen as more stable and financially healthy.
Why Does It Matter?
- A high debt-to-GDP ratio (above 77%) may hinder economic growth and increase the risk of default, affecting financial markets.
- However, a low ratio isn’t always a sign of economic health, especially in stagnant or low-income countries.
- Borrowing to invest in economic growth can temporarily raise the debt ratio but may foster long-term prosperity if investments succeed.
- Conversely, unsuccessful borrowing strategies can worsen debt burdens, as seen in cases like Venezuela.
Global Debt Outlook
- The IMF warns that rising debt levels could undermine global economic stability, requiring countries to pursue fiscal consolidation and sustainable debt management.
- The projected surge in debt reflects pressures from:
- Geopolitical tensions
- Trade restrictions
- Increased government spending during crises
- Sluggish post-pandemic economic recovery