National Statistics Office (NSO), under Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), released First Advance Estimates (FAE) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for FY 2025–26, along with expenditure-side estimates, at both Constant Prices (2011–12) and Current Prices.
First Advance Estimates for FY 2025–26 project a robust 7.4% real GDP growth, driven primarily by a strong services sector, supported by healthy consumption and rising investment, while also signalling upcoming revisions due to the new GDP base year (2022–23)—a key point for interpretation in exams and policy analysis.
What are First Advance Estimates (FAE) of GDP?
- Indicator-based estimates compiled using the benchmark–indicator method.
- Built by extrapolating previous year benchmarks using high-frequency indicators.
- Data sourced from multiple Ministries, Departments and private agencies.
- Provide an early macroeconomic assessment before Provisional and Revised Estimates.
Key Indicators Used
- Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
- Financial results of listed companies (Q1 & Q2, FY26)
- Agricultural & horticultural crop estimates
- Livestock and fisheries output
- Coal, crude oil, natural gas, cement, steel
- Railways tonne-km & passenger-km
- Civil aviation passenger & cargo traffic
- Port cargo traffic
- Commercial vehicle sales
- Bank deposits & credit
- Insurance premiums (life & non-life)
- GSTN outward supplies (till Nov 2025)
- Union & State Government accounts (CGA/CAG)
Key Highlights: FY 2025–26
Overall Growth
- Real GDP growth: 7.4% (FY26) vs 6.5% (FY25)
- Nominal GDP growth: 8.0%
Levels
- Real GDP (Constant Prices): ₹201.90 lakh crore
(FY25 PE: ₹187.97 lakh crore) - Nominal GDP (Current Prices): ₹357.14 lakh crore
(FY25: ₹330.68 lakh crore)
Gross Value Added (GVA)
- Real GVA growth: 7.3%
- Nominal GVA growth: 7.7%
Levels
- Real GVA: ₹184.50 lakh crore
- Nominal GVA: ₹323.48 lakh crore
Sector-wise Performance (GVA at Constant Prices)
Primary Sector
- Agriculture & Allied: 3.1%
- Electricity, Gas, Water & Utilities: 2.1%
Moderate growth
Secondary Sector
- Manufacturing + Construction: 7.0%
Tertiary Sector (Growth Driver)
- Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services: 9.9%
- Public Administration, Defence & Other Services: 9.9%
- Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Broadcasting: 7.5%
Services sector remains the main engine of growth.
Expenditure-side Highlights
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE): 7.0%→ Indicates resilient household demand
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF): 7.8%
(FY25: 7.1%) → Reflects strong investment momentum
Taxes, Subsidies & Compilation Notes
- Taxes on products compiled using:
- GST + non-GST revenues
- Budget Estimates (FY26)
- Volume extrapolation for constant prices
- Subsidies include:
- Food, urea, petroleum, nutrient-based subsidies
- Centre & States data (CGA/CAG)
Discrepancy
- Difference between Production-side GDP and Expenditure-side GDP due to:
- Different data sources
- Deflators
- Timing and coverage of indicators
Base Year Revision
- MoSPI is revising the National Accounts base year from 2011–12 to 2022–23.
- As a result:
- Advance & quarterly estimates will undergo revisions
- Methodology, data sources and benchmarks will change
- Second Advance Estimates (SAE) and Quarterly GDP on the new base year will be released on 27 February 2026.
Why These Estimates Matter
- Provide the first official macroeconomic outlook for the year
- Used for:
- Budget formulation
- Fiscal & monetary policy signalling
- Investment and rating assessments
- Highlight sectoral growth dynamics (Services-led growth in FY26)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- GDP is the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period.
- Measures:
- Economic size
- Growth performance
- Overall economic health
- Computed using:
- Production approach
- Expenditure approach
- Income approach